Monday, January 3, 2011


I turned out to be wonderfully lucky in 2010. All the trades I made were great, and the VXX short made me over a 100%.

Just want to jot down my thoughts for 2011.

1. Gold is gonna go down. People will book profits early in the year. My guess is a 20% decline in Q1 2011. On that note, I just shorted a bunch of DGP.

2. US Stock market will likely go up in Q1 and Q2 and then stay flat. Will need to exercise caution before getting into new positions. even though valuations, by some historic P/E measures seem very high, I think earnings are gonna be strongly positive for the year and that ratio is justified.

3. China is going to soft-land. Too many people are worried about it already. Good move by Chinese central bank in allowing the currency to appreciate. I think there are some good value buys in China, but one should exercise caution before buying them. Note to self: check cash flow statements thoroughly.

4. Heed Jim Chanos and avoid construction materials companies supplying to China.

5. Oil... is going to skyrocket.

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